Thursday, June 18, 2009

"A Tale of Two Cities (Forecasts)"...

(click on pics to enlarge)

Short blog today as I crashed extra early yesterday and am now playing catch-up for all the things I put off doing! Who, ME, procrastinate???

Thankfully, I awoke to a radar that was active outside our viewing area, warnings a-churnin' along the Savannah River Valley, and that's fine with me. We had the Severe Thunderstorm Watch go up in the mountain counties just before 1pm, which then spread into the Piedmont by 4pm. I do believe our mini-cool wedge helped keep the atmosphere above us more stable, hence lack of widespread storm problems last evening.

However, a tornado warning popped around 9:30a on the south side of Asheville for a small but clearly rotating cell. Unimpressive on the radar in every way, but there. Mountain T-warnings are unusual in that the uneven terrain is not favorable for the development of funnels, though the Asheville area is in the rather broad French Broad/Swannanoa River Valley. Late yesterday afternoon I saw a T-warning pop for Ashe County, which has quite the rolling topography. The shot below is roughly 15-20 miles to the northwest of where the warning came down (taken last fall):

Here is the radar scan from that cell, the T-warning outlined in fuschia...

When I did a 3-D scan, there was little of note to see; too, this area is a bit far from the radar beam, so there was a lot of missing 'info' in the lower reaches of the storm. Compared to the 3-D scans I blogged with yesterday which had strong development up into the purple and white velocities, this one was only up into the red. All that to say I have no impressive 3-D scan from that warning. HOWEVER...

One of the many tell-tale things you look for in a doppler radar scan is a 'couplet'. Basically, reddish colors in a 'velocity' scan indicate winds moving away from a radar, and greenish colors indicate winds moving towards a radar...and where you have a clearly defined red-green 'point' of sorts, you have at the very least rotation aloft. Whether it makes a funnel that reaches the surface is another matter, but check out this beautiful couplet that is as 'clean' an example as I've seen in NC tornadoes in quite some time...

The brighter the colors, the stronger the winds...just a beautiful velocity scan of that T-warning cell. They also had serious rainfall issues in Ashe County, with mudslides and flooding reported in several locations. Rains started early in the morning in Ashe and Watauga Counties especially, so by the time the late afternoon big dawgs rolled in they made for a serious mess...

Following is a 'storm total' grab I took at 1am today...sorry I don't know the length of time for the image, but it gives you an idea of the overall widespread storm coverage we've had lately:


The National Weather Service made their official assessments yesterday of the prior day's potential tornado damage in NC and SC...at last check they had classified 3 tornadoes, one EF-0 and two EF-1s. There may be more detailed info yet to come down, as well as a graphical index I can share with you on the blog; I just made a quick check and only came up with short written confirmation reports, so I'll go snooping later today.

Time to head 'em up and move 'em out, as they say. Oh yeah, the blog title 'inspiration'...I have models that say zero storms today, and one that says a 20% chance...and at the moment I am seeing a Storm Prediction Center covering us in a "slight" severe storm chance for today which has me putting storms in the forecast, albeit few in number...the PM met has been going 'dry' for two days, and I feel compelled to keep chances in the wording...will toss my proverbial weather coin and call heads or tails in a couple of hours after some new data comes down....wheeeee!!!


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