"Hurricane Outlook: 2007"

No surprise, here. NOAA just released their 2007 hurricane forecast which calls for above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin.

While you can correctly assume that the basis for this forecast is based upon complicated calculations and assessments, let me boil it down in layman's terms to the crux of the situation, which should be in stark contrast to the (thankfully) dud 2006 hurricane season.

Let's start with the very basics...general starter conditions for hurricane formation are warm sea surface temperatures (SST) above 80 degrees, nice large domes of high pressure under which hurricanes not only form but are better protected, the absence of strong upper level jetstream activity through the favored formation zones, and a latitudinal position of at least 10 degrees so the Coriolis Effect can do its thing in assisting overall rotation. Plenty more, of course, but those elements are key foundations.

2006. The aggressive forecast was based on a weakening El Nino pattern that would allow increased hurricane formation...but it stayed around months longer (and stronger) than NOAA's modeling had suggested. El Nino patterns, in short, bring increased water temperatures in the eastern Pacific, which induces storm developments, which shifts jet stream patterns...in strong El Nino years, southern California gets pummeled by storms, with heavy amounts of moisture moving inland to Mexico and the US border area, and drier conditions in the east. In 2006 there was a noticeable west to east sub-tropical jetstream that screamed eastward through the Caribbean...if you remember, many hurricanes that formed were turned north into the Atlantic before ever coming close to the US mainland...we were well protected.

That upper level wind structure is absent, now...whether we are seeing the antithesis form in a La Nina pattern, or just a neutralizing of the El Nino, it's a bit of a moot point for now. Southern Atlantic water temperatures are already warm. We're already seeing a dry pattern here in the Southeast with strong areas of high pressure along the eastern seaboard as well as the Atlantic.

Too, we not only stay alert to conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, but far across the Atlantic to the African coast, which is an important breeding ground for potential hurricane systems. If Siskel and Ebert were to grade this years 'movie' release by "Atlantic Motion Pictures", they would say it enlisted all the good elements and character development for a strong story line...and a BIG "two thumbs up!"

I think we all cringe at any hurricane hitting populations...damage to the Gulf oil platforms will truly exacerbate our fuel prices, and should this forecast pan out, we will be forced to do some serious 'reckoning' on many fronts. New Orleans has been shabbily shored up and is set for another disaster should a big hurricane come in at just the right angle. Our National Guard forces are stretched and strapped thanks to the Middle East Theater. Lots of potential monkey wrenches...serious monkey wrenches...await us, I'm afraid.

Now, on the count of three, let's sing the famous Seven Dwarfs' song....

"I owe, I owe,
It's off to work I go..."