(remember: click on graphics/photos to enlarge)
While I posted other links to this effect a couple of weeks ago, NOAA put out these official graphics at the end of last week and bear repeating to give us some serious things to ponder. Keep in mind that just because a map says 'warm and dry' this winter does NOT mean there won't be any rain or cold weather...just that when all is averaged out, that is forecast to be the net effect. First up is the temperature outlook for the core of the cold months this winter:
In and of itself, you could argue that warmer temperatures around the Gulf of Mexico region would mean more moisture transport inland which, when combined with colder continental air inland during the winter months might make for better rainfall chances in the Southeast. However, our nemesis has been an omnipresent sub-tropical Bermuda High that continues to spread its influence far to the west into the Southeast U.S., which blocks a lot of incoming systems. Note the this winter's precipitation outlook below:
When I see that type of "dry" delineation in the Southeast, that tells me we will be under the influence of blocking highs more often than not, as storm systems coming in from the west and northwest will be buffeted by the drier clockwise flow around the high off the Atlantic coast, sending the rains into the upper Midwest, up and over the Southeast. Not a good sign given our critically low (and lowering) water supplies.
Speaking of which, in my Sunday wanderings in western North Carolina, I returned from the Blue Ridge Parkway via Highway 80, the gorgeous Buck Creek Gap road. Along the highway, closer to P.G. (Pleasant Garden @ Highway 70) there is a stunning mountain lake, privately and tightly controlled, called Lake Tahoma. Fantastic fishing, deep cold water, and no jet skis or motorboat wakes allowed...paradise, it is...unaffordable paradise for the majority of humankind.
As I quickly stopped and got a couple of photographs for the blog (their local 'sheriff' will quickly check up on your credentials and shoo you away), I noticed Lake Tahoma is at 'full pond'...a rare thing these days in the Southeast. The famous Buck Creek leading into the lake was still and hardly moving...so how is it possible?
It's a deep spring-fed lake, through and through, with springs going strong, apparently. Go swimming in that lake and you'll feel it! When my family used to live in Marion many moons ago, we had a friend with a house there...and I spent many a delighted hour fishing for handsome-sized crappie, bluegill, and bass from their dock. Just a great all-around lake retreat.
Well, that lake is in the distinct minority...we are in for a serious public relations policy haul as we quickly come to terms with what could be devastating water emergencies in the months ahead. The above map is sombre, to say the least, for much of North Carolina forecast to be in the "Persist" drought region.
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Just a little teaser photo for Thursday's upcoming blog from parts of the Blue Ridge Parkway...this pastoral scene is in a valley in northeast Buncombe County, close to 3,000 feet elevation. Colors were only just beginning there...presently 'on fire' up around 4,500 feet, as you'll soon see...stay tuned!
While I posted other links to this effect a couple of weeks ago, NOAA put out these official graphics at the end of last week and bear repeating to give us some serious things to ponder. Keep in mind that just because a map says 'warm and dry' this winter does NOT mean there won't be any rain or cold weather...just that when all is averaged out, that is forecast to be the net effect. First up is the temperature outlook for the core of the cold months this winter:
In and of itself, you could argue that warmer temperatures around the Gulf of Mexico region would mean more moisture transport inland which, when combined with colder continental air inland during the winter months might make for better rainfall chances in the Southeast. However, our nemesis has been an omnipresent sub-tropical Bermuda High that continues to spread its influence far to the west into the Southeast U.S., which blocks a lot of incoming systems. Note the this winter's precipitation outlook below:
When I see that type of "dry" delineation in the Southeast, that tells me we will be under the influence of blocking highs more often than not, as storm systems coming in from the west and northwest will be buffeted by the drier clockwise flow around the high off the Atlantic coast, sending the rains into the upper Midwest, up and over the Southeast. Not a good sign given our critically low (and lowering) water supplies.
Speaking of which, in my Sunday wanderings in western North Carolina, I returned from the Blue Ridge Parkway via Highway 80, the gorgeous Buck Creek Gap road. Along the highway, closer to P.G. (Pleasant Garden @ Highway 70) there is a stunning mountain lake, privately and tightly controlled, called Lake Tahoma. Fantastic fishing, deep cold water, and no jet skis or motorboat wakes allowed...paradise, it is...unaffordable paradise for the majority of humankind.
As I quickly stopped and got a couple of photographs for the blog (their local 'sheriff' will quickly check up on your credentials and shoo you away), I noticed Lake Tahoma is at 'full pond'...a rare thing these days in the Southeast. The famous Buck Creek leading into the lake was still and hardly moving...so how is it possible?
It's a deep spring-fed lake, through and through, with springs going strong, apparently. Go swimming in that lake and you'll feel it! When my family used to live in Marion many moons ago, we had a friend with a house there...and I spent many a delighted hour fishing for handsome-sized crappie, bluegill, and bass from their dock. Just a great all-around lake retreat.
Well, that lake is in the distinct minority...we are in for a serious public relations policy haul as we quickly come to terms with what could be devastating water emergencies in the months ahead. The above map is sombre, to say the least, for much of North Carolina forecast to be in the "Persist" drought region.----------------------------------------------
Just a little teaser photo for Thursday's upcoming blog from parts of the Blue Ridge Parkway...this pastoral scene is in a valley in northeast Buncombe County, close to 3,000 feet elevation. Colors were only just beginning there...presently 'on fire' up around 4,500 feet, as you'll soon see...stay tuned!
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