Just passing along info and thoughts on Thursday's weather scenario for the Triad....
Had a conference call at 2pm today (Tuesday) for all the weatherheads, headed by the Greenville-Spartanburg NWS office, and, well, here is my take FOR THE TRIAD...
"In-situ" cold wedge should form through evaporative cooling...that means onset of precipition (in earnest) around 6-7am, should be a mix of snow, sleet, and even rain. Of all the Carolina locales, if anyone is going to have a mess on their hands, it's us, the Triad, given our location north and west up against the mountains, where cold wedges are their most stubborn. Below is a recent GFS map with my notes added in (click to enlarge):
Freezing rain appears to be a contender when earlier I was leaning toward more sleet. That tells me the thickness of the cold air layer will be quite shallow...and ice is NOBODY'S friend. Raleigh/Blacksburg NWS offices think up to 1/4" of ice is in order for the Triad...that's nasty stuff in itself...thankfully winds are NOT an issue. However, even 1/4" of ice would bring down some trees and power lines.
Bottom line is, I expect roads to be yucky for most of Thursday...conditions will be worse the farther north and west you go...I don't expect a great deal of accumulation, but keep in mind it will take only an inch to really muss things up...and that should be easily achieved.
The high pressure feeding cold dry air is 'transitory' in nature, which means it is a moving target...NOT ideal for a good snow system, and helping keep us 'marginal' in the temperature department. Be that as it may, expect a mess Thursday...no problems Friday with much warmer air...then really cold (dry) stuff for the weekend.
Feel the excitement.....!
Had a conference call at 2pm today (Tuesday) for all the weatherheads, headed by the Greenville-Spartanburg NWS office, and, well, here is my take FOR THE TRIAD...
"In-situ" cold wedge should form through evaporative cooling...that means onset of precipition (in earnest) around 6-7am, should be a mix of snow, sleet, and even rain. Of all the Carolina locales, if anyone is going to have a mess on their hands, it's us, the Triad, given our location north and west up against the mountains, where cold wedges are their most stubborn. Below is a recent GFS map with my notes added in (click to enlarge):
Freezing rain appears to be a contender when earlier I was leaning toward more sleet. That tells me the thickness of the cold air layer will be quite shallow...and ice is NOBODY'S friend. Raleigh/Blacksburg NWS offices think up to 1/4" of ice is in order for the Triad...that's nasty stuff in itself...thankfully winds are NOT an issue. However, even 1/4" of ice would bring down some trees and power lines.
Bottom line is, I expect roads to be yucky for most of Thursday...conditions will be worse the farther north and west you go...I don't expect a great deal of accumulation, but keep in mind it will take only an inch to really muss things up...and that should be easily achieved.
The high pressure feeding cold dry air is 'transitory' in nature, which means it is a moving target...NOT ideal for a good snow system, and helping keep us 'marginal' in the temperature department. Be that as it may, expect a mess Thursday...no problems Friday with much warmer air...then really cold (dry) stuff for the weekend.
Feel the excitement.....!
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