Commander Cody and His Lost Planet Airmen ...there I go dating myself, again. When he wasn't strung out, the boy could belt out some boogie woogie, rockabilly-style...
At its best, really fun, upbeat music that I can still hear, though the old LPs I had of his are long gone. (I can just hear the younger ones going "LP? Was that something before MP3?"). Yep, ol' vinyl records, long gone from a, well...make like a rope and skip it for now...!
One of their many classic songs was "Too Much Fun", which is exactly what we mets won't be having by the way our impending Thursday weather scenario is presently morphing...
"Too much fun, there seems to be
Too much fun, Heavens be!
A whole lotta things that I never done,
I ain't ever had too much fun..."
Lots of factors are pointing toward up to 1/2 an inch of ice along with a small snow/sleet layer by the time all is said in done....the first 'best' chances will develop later in the morning through early afternoon, then another push later in the evening into the night past midnight. As I write and post this there are no advisories/watches/or warnings, but I can promise you THAT will change and soon.
Here is a look at the Tuesday afternoon run of the GFS model for Thursday evening.
Note the "X" for the Triad...the low is favorably placed to our south and west with lots of moisture colored in. However, maps have not been showing a 'parenting High', as I call it, one that would sit where the "xH" is toward the top...there will be a High well into the Atlantic that will supply a limited east wind, but it is not the ideal position to drive a cold wedge. In fact, this model shows NO cold wedge at all developing...the blue line is the start of the snow line from rain, basically, and it has it well away from us to the north and west. If such a map were to play out, we'd be talking rain and in the 40s for this event...but that won't happen.
Surface temps Thursday morning should be around the 25 degree mark, with increased clouds. While the temperature will slowly notch upward, the first rounds of precipitation to arrive will evaporate and start cooling the air column. Models are showing the temperature staying below freezing until 6pm Thursday evening...if there is a break in the precip late in the afternoon, it will give the air a chance to get a tad warmer, but all signs are pointing to a slippery mess. The overall main precip type of concern will be freezing rain, though there will be early periods of snow and sleet...
Here is the big problem for schools: they have to "make the call" before sunrise, and there won't be anything going on. By 11am, I fully expect to have precip going and seeing quickly deteriorating roads through the noon hour...then everyone hits the roads to try and get home...you have sub-freezing temps...with lots of moisture and, well...you can see the handwriting on that wall.
Yeah, we'll wait and see for the moment. I am posting this before going to sleep instead of early Wednesday...I'll update later Wednesday afternoon with more thoughts, I'm sure.
Don't have too much fun, now, ya hear?
At its best, really fun, upbeat music that I can still hear, though the old LPs I had of his are long gone. (I can just hear the younger ones going "LP? Was that something before MP3?"). Yep, ol' vinyl records, long gone from a, well...make like a rope and skip it for now...!One of their many classic songs was "Too Much Fun", which is exactly what we mets won't be having by the way our impending Thursday weather scenario is presently morphing...
"Too much fun, there seems to be
Too much fun, Heavens be!
A whole lotta things that I never done,
I ain't ever had too much fun..."
Lots of factors are pointing toward up to 1/2 an inch of ice along with a small snow/sleet layer by the time all is said in done....the first 'best' chances will develop later in the morning through early afternoon, then another push later in the evening into the night past midnight. As I write and post this there are no advisories/watches/or warnings, but I can promise you THAT will change and soon.
Here is a look at the Tuesday afternoon run of the GFS model for Thursday evening.
Note the "X" for the Triad...the low is favorably placed to our south and west with lots of moisture colored in. However, maps have not been showing a 'parenting High', as I call it, one that would sit where the "xH" is toward the top...there will be a High well into the Atlantic that will supply a limited east wind, but it is not the ideal position to drive a cold wedge. In fact, this model shows NO cold wedge at all developing...the blue line is the start of the snow line from rain, basically, and it has it well away from us to the north and west. If such a map were to play out, we'd be talking rain and in the 40s for this event...but that won't happen.
Surface temps Thursday morning should be around the 25 degree mark, with increased clouds. While the temperature will slowly notch upward, the first rounds of precipitation to arrive will evaporate and start cooling the air column. Models are showing the temperature staying below freezing until 6pm Thursday evening...if there is a break in the precip late in the afternoon, it will give the air a chance to get a tad warmer, but all signs are pointing to a slippery mess. The overall main precip type of concern will be freezing rain, though there will be early periods of snow and sleet...
Here is the big problem for schools: they have to "make the call" before sunrise, and there won't be anything going on. By 11am, I fully expect to have precip going and seeing quickly deteriorating roads through the noon hour...then everyone hits the roads to try and get home...you have sub-freezing temps...with lots of moisture and, well...you can see the handwriting on that wall.
Yeah, we'll wait and see for the moment. I am posting this before going to sleep instead of early Wednesday...I'll update later Wednesday afternoon with more thoughts, I'm sure.
Don't have too much fun, now, ya hear?
No comments:
Post a Comment