"Pulling numbers..."

That's roughly the 5pm time of day where I sit down and pre-plan my morning forecasts, spending up to an hour some days poring over the data, the discussions, the models, the trends, the latest on Bradgelina...ok, ya got me, there....I don't really pore over the trends...

This has been a crazy afternoon...what you have to keep in mind with any and all models is that - uh, duh, they are "models" of time ahead and NOT what will actually happen. All day I've watched NWS products talk of highs in the upper 30s here, little freezing rain accumulation, and the only Triad warning for ice is Surry County. Yadkin, Stokes, and Rockingham Counties have been under a Freezing Rain Advisory...and all 4 of those counties are controlled by the NWS office in Blacksburg, VA.

Lots of rain yet to pass through our neck of the woods, but the warm nose aloft has yet to carve its way down to the surface. Check out the the air temp data from Piedmont Triad airport in Greensboro, along with the timestamp:

6am.....34 degrees
1pm.....32 degrees
4pm.....31 degrees

...and for the Winston-Salem airfield:

10am...35 degrees
11am...34 degrees
2pm.....33 degrees
3pm.....32 degrees
4pm.....31 degrees

Clear as a bell the CAD (cold-air damming) was intensifying and slowly moving south and west...models all point to the opposite to have happened today, and it didn't...and as yet isn't...happening. Winds were forecast to become south, but have remained basically east all day.

Raleigh-NWS just issued a 'special weather statement' for the Greensboro -Winston-Salem-High Point area...even with the rain and the air temps, little to no icing was ocurring on roads and bridges, hence no advisory...4-5,000 feet aloft the air temp is 50 degrees...so for a few more hours we'll walk that touchy line of c-c-c-c-cold rain versus a nightmare.

Come on, warm nose!

And, soon enough for me, hello 1000 thread-count sheets!